Glimpsing The Future Through Microcosms

As we grab the few bytes of news from mainstream media over a quick cup of coffee in the morning or just before dinner at night, we are hit with mini stories ranging from clashes in Ukraine to the wedding dress of a Kardashian. It is difficult to weed out the stories that matter from the propaganda or the endless reporting on who is wearing what, with who at what party. We are after all, busy people that have work issues, mortgage or rent issues, credit issues and family and friend issues. It is difficult to spare some time to see the bigger picture. Even more difficult to sort the blatant lies and propaganda from the truth. Most news stories run for a minute or less so it is impossible to get a complete picture. A quick video of fighting in Ukraine with a headline "Russian Invasion causes More Death" is all we get from our news sources. Information bytes that are spun to justify whatever action the much more civilised Western World intends to take on the evils of Russia, Syria, Iraq, etc, etc. This story is quickly followed by a picture of Scout Willis, topless, protesting about Instagram's policy of not allowing nudity or porn on their site. How dare they?

How can we, the average citizen of the West, piece together what is actually happening in our world when we are served up information on current events in such a fashion? The truth is, we can't. We don't really have the time to search for the truth. We have things to do, debt to service, friends to Like and Follow. And our elected leaders and trusted media sources wouldn't tell us untruths. Would they? Meanwhile events are played out around the globe that are taking us to a "brave new world" and we don't have the time to even picture what that will look like. We are all heading for Destination Unknown but we are confident that our leaders will look after us. We will be ok.

Perhaps by looking at the past and present we may be able to glimpse the future. Perhaps we could benefit from looking at a few microcosms that are playing out as we speak. Will they provide a vision of our future?

MICROCOSM 1 - THE FARM

An executive wanted to get out of the rat race and enjoy a simpler life. He had always wanted to own a farm and he was now In the position where he could afford to buy one and live the life of a gentleman farmer. He didn't know much about farming but he loved the idea of being a farm owner and living a quiet gentleman's life in a picturesque rural area.

It did not take long to find a farm for sale that appealed to him. He organised a loan from his bank and moved in as soon as he could. He bought gentleman farmer clothes and stood on his porch enjoying the lifestyle (and prestige) that owning a farm offered him. He smiled and tilted his hat to all passersby.

Eddie Albert – Green Acres

It was not long before the bank demanded he make payments on his loan. Unfortunately, his farm was not producing much and he wasn't about to use any of his personal savings and so he decided to sell some of his assets to make the payment. He had many assets and he didn't need them all so he sold his dairy cattle and made his payment.

The next payment was made with the sale of his tractor and milking machines. He didn't need them now that he had sold his dairy cattle and it was only a small portion of his big farm anyway. He could still sit in his rocking chair on the front verandah and nod to the locals.

A short time later, a review of his finances showed him that the farm was now producing even less and so he did the only thing executives do when times are tough, he fired most of the farm workers and cut the wages of the remaining few. He had done well. He had cut his costs and so would soon have a better farm business.

The next few payments became due but he still was not producing enough to make the payments. His farm though was a good one. There were still plenty of assets he could sell. His sheep, his machinery, his seed, his beef cattle and his horses were sold to make the payments. The rest of his farm workers were laid off. It wasn't his fault, he explained to them, we are living in a tough economy. The previous owner had made mistakes and costs were too high. He couldn't compete with other farmers who had cheaper costs and it was cheaper for him to buy his beef from developing countries anyway.

Soon the farmer had nothing left to sell. He declared his company, Farm Pty Ltd, bankrupt, took his personal wealth and moved on to his next adventure. He never looked back to see what impact closing his farm had on the community around him as he was too busy looking for a better farm to buy.

His approach - grow debt, sell assets, reduce the ability to produce and go bankrupt, is a cycle that has only one eventual outcome. Luckily though, he personally did not suffer any financial loss.

(I apologise to the original author of this story for not being able to give them the proper credit but unfortunately I cannot recall who wrote this and I retell it in my own words.)

MICROCOSM 2 - DETROIT

In the early 1900's, following a few iterations, the Ford Motor Co was established in Detroit. The city, at that time, was a major producer of horse drawn carriages and so there was no shortage of potential employees to help build the new "horseless carriage". It was a logical choice to establish a factory there given its position on the trade route and large number of skilled vehicle builders. As the automobile became popular others joined Ford in Detroit including the Dodge Brothers, Walter Chrysler and others. Detroit soon became the automobile capital of the world and was a shining example of manufacturing in the US.

World War I and II saw Detroit grow further as the production line manufacturing technique, that Ford honed and utilised so well, was suited to wartime production. World War II saw Detroit produce nearly 35% of US war production. The increased scale of wartime manufacturing brought in billions of dollars and transformed the city into a metropolis. In just 3 years, from 1940 to 1943 over 200,000 migrant workers made Detroit their home. Detroit was to become the fourth largest city in the United States. A "manufacturing Mecca" that attracted workers, riches and progress but unfortunately, also the associated "underbelly".

Postwar Detroit saw the exit of millions from Detroit. Money that should have been spent in the growing the city and surrounding suburbs was misused and misspent. Detroit answered this latest crisis with a shift to Arts and Culture. Companies such as Motown Records helped establish Detroit as a cultural centre which started to breath life into Detroit again. Unfortunately the oil shortage crisis in the 1970's saw even more people exit the City. Production slowed, politicians mismanaged and the racial tensions grew. During the next two decades Detroit would be referred to as "America's Arson Capital" and "America's Murder Capital". FBI crime statistics listed Detroit as the "most dangerous city in America" during this time.

But Detroit still had hope. There was a strong manufacturing presence and automotive production was still rolling out cars. Enter a long string of politicians, mayors and officials who were, at best short sighted and at worst, corrupt. They failed to take the necessary steps to ensure a prosperous future for Detroit. These Mayors include the likes of Coleman Young who has been accused of fanning the flames of racism. Young, a black mayor who held the post from 1974 until 1994, has been described by Time magazine as a mayor "who cared more about retribution than resurrection." And of course there is the former mayor Kwame Kilpatrick who has been convicted of fraud and racketeering. His name has been linked to many scandals including stripper parties, funnelling grant money to his wife, numerous acts of nepotism, assault and even the murder of Tamarac Greene.

Detroit has had its fair share of leaders who failed in their role of leading their citizens to a prosperous future. Policy decisions and money management that focused more on growing their personal wealth and power rather than benefitting the citizens of Detroit.

The crash of the housing "bubble" and the resultant financial crisis of 2008 spelt the death knell for Detroit. Michigan State wasn't going to help and neither was the Federal Government. Detroit was left to its own devices to try and claw its way out of its dilemma and on July 18, 2013, Detroit filed for Chapter 9 Bankruptcy with a debt of around $18 Billion.

Google Earth picture of the Detroit Packard Plant, the largest abandoned factory in the world.

So what is the future now for this past gem of the United States? It has played out the classic Boom to Bust scenario and though there are a myriad of commentators eager to point out the failings of the city, there are few that dare to offer a plan of regrowth that actually includes all Detroit citizens.

The governor of Michigan, Rick Snyder, appointed Detroit emergency manager Kevyn Orr who swiftly developed a plan. His plan changes on a regular basis and a more recent one included spending $78.7 million to hire civilian police employees so that officers can be redeployed (perhaps to tackle to expected social unrest), $25 million for a Department of Transportation security force (to perhaps keep the poor and unsightly from using public transport) and $90.6 million for software and servers to improve the city's dilapidated IT systems (after all, Big Brother needs to live in the New Detroit) It also included 26% cuts to monthly pension checks for general retirees if they vote in favor of his restructuring plan and 34% cuts if they reject it. Now there is a good and fair motivator for a Yes vote! The city also proposed 6% cuts to monthly pensions of police and fire retirees IF they accept the restructuring plan (presumably the cuts are much higher if they reject the plan.) But in reality, a Yes or No vote will have no legal impact on whether the plan will be introduced or not. It is merely that Orr would prefer that the people vote Yes to the plan. Is this the type of Democracy we send troops across the globe to protect. Do they fight and die in far off places to ensure this version of Democracy?

Orr's plans also include the building of a sports complex, the demolition of many Detroit eyesores and the annexing of entire suburbs. I don't think the Detroit Rubbish Incinerator, that burns 2,800 tons of rubbish a day, is included in the plan though. Most of the investment proposed seems to be in the central and downtown areas, leaving those in the outer suburbs to fend for themselves in poverty and growing ruins. Many houses in the areas outside the city can now be bought for around $500. No, that's not a misprint. A huge number of houses have been foreclosed and abandoned and are now for sale by local council or banks for $500! Anyone want to live next to a big incinerator? Anyone?

The plan is a moving feast at the moment which is understandable. Bankruptcy always results in creditors arguing over who gets their money and who doesn't. It is clear that the pensioners are amongst the "who doesn't" group as they are given an ultimatum of - vote Yes to the plan or suffer greater hardship. It is clear that the poorest living outside the city surrounds are also in the "who doesn't" group. Someone has to pay for the Detroit Leaders follies after all and it is always those with the least amount of wealth and power. There is also a battle going on for the art and treasures of the museum. Many want to sell the treasure and take the loot. The city after all is dying so the sight of vultures trying to feast on the remains should not be surprising.

Meanwhile, the mainstream media spin on today's Detroit is "Property values are increasing, businesses are returning to a newly revitalized waterfront district and crime is declining". Good marketing for the new investors? I am guessing these investors don't want to know that Detroit once gave Saddam Hussein, former Iraqi president, the keys to the city (he was given a key in 1980 in recognition of his large donations to a church). I wonder if he bought a house in Detroit or visited the incinerator?

Google Street View circa 2009 (top) and 2013 (bottom)  Pictures from Goobingdetroit.tumblr.com

And Detroit's bankruptcy is not an isolated case of fiscal mismanagement and a city in decline, says the man advising the judge handling Detroit's bankruptcy case. According to Richard Ravitch, a former Lieutenant-Governor of New York, more U.S. cities could be heading towards bankruptcy. In an interview on CBC's The Lang & O'Leary Exchange, he points to pensions and salaries as the main causes of the financial crisis facing many US cities.

Naturally pensions and salaries should be blamed. We can't blame banksters or Mayors or some kind of financial mismanagement by faceless organisations. Pensions and salaries are the root cause. It is becoming a common cry from those in power with agendas and secrets and it also explains why I see so many pensioners and labourers at the fancy restaurants having lavish and expensive "business lunches".

To be fair, Ravitch did point out something that is glaringly obvious to all those except politicians - one of the main problems he sees in municipal budgets is the sale of assets to pay for operating costs. "It's like paying for your dinner by selling your furniture. Ultimately, it's not sustainable," he said.

(Someone needs to explain that to Australian Premier of Queensland, Campbell Newman and all the other politicians across the globe. Queensland assets worth $33.6 billion will be sold or leased if the Newman government wins next year's State election, including electricity generators CS Energy and Stanwell, the ports of Gladstone and Townsville and the Mount Isa railway line. Newman also took the latest State Budget opportunity to cut many benefits from pensioners.)

So some commentators are starting to raise questions on other US states rushing blindly to the cliff exposed by Detroit. Perhaps this time someone will listen and take appropriate action? I am not holding my breath.

Detroit remains an excellent example of a city's rise and fall and who ultimately pays the price for the bad decisions of those we elect.

MICROCOSM 3 - GREECE

The financial crisis of 2008 had its roots in greed. The quest for quick and easy money coupled with few, if any, government controls, fuelled the greed and corruption of banksters Fanny Mae, Freddie Mac et al until the system imploded. The economies that were driven by cheap credit from the banks flowing to individuals so they could buy unaffordable and overpriced real estate saw their investments disappear before their eyes. The Wall Street millionaires said "Oops" and the governments moved in quickly to save Wall Street and as many banksters as they could with taxpayer money. The way to stave off any future "Oops" we are told is to keep borrowing - keep the credit flowing. Let's print money.

Many countries around the world needed to act quickly to prop up their contributors, the lobbyists and big business. "We are too big to fail" was the cry of banks and big industries and this was echoed by the government as they reached deep into our pockets to shift money from us to "them". Measures were introduced to keep us spending whilst raising costs and taxes to pay for the mistakes of the banksters.

Unfortunately, some countries were hit harder than others in the "Oops" of 2008. Greece is one that is still struggling 6 years on.

When Greece entered the European Union (EU) in 1981, they were still struggling to recover from their economic issues of the 70s. Entry into the EU made matters worse. For example, throughout the period between 1983 and 1991, about 25 percent of Greece's manufactured goods were exported, while the share of imports in domestic consumption of manufactured products increased from 30 percent to 57 percent. With debt levels and budget deficits rising, Greece was unable to grow their production to offset their rising liabilities. Meanwhile, unemployment, which was already on the rise prior to 2008, went into a free fall. Over 1,000,000 workers lost their jobs since 2008 and Greece's official rate of unemployment is nearly 28% and growing although many say the real figure is much, much worse.

So who could help Greece overcome its economic woes? Enter the IMF.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was established after World War II by the UN. It's prime objective is to grow international trade but in reality it is more of a short term money lender. The type of money lender that an individual might visit when they need cash quickly for a short period of time. A pawn shop or a loan shark. Money may be lent but at high costs. The costs are not so much in the interest rate but IMF place harsh restrictions on any country they lend to as a strict condition of the loan. These conditions vary from country to country but usually involve the country selling any and all of their assets, cutting costs (welfare, medical, etc) and raising taxes. They are, after all, "here to help".

In Greece, the IMF conditions of their loan were called Austerity Measures. Austerity is "dictionary defined" as the severe and strict reduction of "luxury" goods and services. The Greek definition of luxury goods and services seems to include all manner of things such as pensions, wages and jobs.

The IMF will only lend money to Greece if they adhere to their strict guidelines of tax collection, tougher controls on spending, and privatising state assets. Over 4 years, the IMF will lend $235 billion USD to Greece as long as they implement agreed austerity measures on the people of Greece.

These Austerity Measures include:

·      Reduce pensions.

·      Increase retirement age.

·      Increase VAT by 10%.

·      Reduce the salaries, benefits and allowances for civil servants, members of Parliament and government officials.

·      Freeze all public sector salaries until 2014.

·      Raise the allowable redundancy numbers - Companies with more than 150 employees can enact up to 30 dismissals a month without question.

·      Reduce severance pay.

·      Reduce the minimum wage for young people.

·      Remove the rights for dismissed employees - redundant employees can no longer contest their dismissal unless their ex-employer agrees

·      Increase existing taxes and introduce additional "levies".

These measures do little to grow the economy of Greece and are detrimental to their future as a producer in the European Union. Cost cutting only works when it is in conjunction with economic growth plans. In Greece's case however, there seems to be no agreed economic recovery plan apart from the cutting of costs, selling of assets and the reduction of the workforce.

The Greek politicians, scrambling to secure IMF money, seem incapable of any long term outlook. Like a couple who are on the brink of bankruptcy through the loss of their jobs, they are selling their car, sacking their gardener, not feeding their dog and increasing their credit card limits. They are not looking for new jobs or new ways to earn income. The eventual outcome is predictable.

The impact of the policies of the Greek politicians and the IMF fall mainly at the feet of Greece citizens. Those that caused the problem are safe and sound in their plush air conditioned Wall Street Offices or luxury apartments around the globe and some are just returning from a nice Copenhagen getaway called Bilderberg 2014.

Unemployment, cuts in social welfare and rising costs are the main burden the citizens of Greece have to bear as a result as the politicians bow to the IMF. This has led to massive protests in many Greek cities where police brutality and the frequent use of tear gas is on an upward trend. As most protests end in violent clashes, the injuries to the people and the damage to historical property is growing. Large areas of Athens now resemble a war torn area of Syria rather than an area of one of the past great empires of the world.

“Austerity Riots” in Athens – The Australian

 Suicide in Greece is growing in the face of a bleak future. More than 3,000 people killed or attempted to kill themselves in the past four years. The sense of hopelessness spreads across the land as people are subjected to tighter and tighter austerity measures. Between 2007 and 2011 the suicide rate rose by 43 percent. 2011 saw the highest suicide levels in 50 years, with 477 deaths and there are also a high number of unreported cases making the actual suicide rate much greater than official figures. Suicide had been one of the rarest causes of death in Greece prior to 2008.

The harsh economic conditions in Greece for the past few years have forced many parents to abandon or give away their babies, as they are unable to provide for them. According to a New York Times article, in Elena Venizelou the number of abandoned children tripled between 2010 to 2013.

Homelessness in Greece is growing at a fast rate. The homeless population is not only at historic highs, but the profile of the homeless has substantially changed as the debt crisis has forced many onto the streets due to bankruptcy and job loss. Once likely to consist of a population of alcoholics, drug users, and the mentally ill, the homeless now are more likely to be middle-class, young and moderately poor individuals, and families.

There are no government supported homeless shelters in Greece and no official policy exists for helping the homeless return to work and to society.

Homeless in Athens – Gulf News

Health care and the cost of medications have risen. Greece introduced a "co-payment" for the purchase of medication which translates into paying more for required medicine. This has, at best, added further cost burdens to the sick and elderly and at worst, made medicine unaffordable for those that need it most. The rise in deaths and serious illnesses of the elderly and interned over the coming years is likely to increase as a result.

Crime is also growing at an alarming rate. According to police reports, burglary increased by 50% from 2011 to 2012. Official figures however are hard to access and even harder to believe. Reports from Greece residents highlight the growing numbers of burglary and muggings whilst the official numbers quote low, less likely numbers. It is also thought that many robberies and muggings are not reported due to the new cost system introduced for some prosecutions. A "user pays" type justice system is yet another austerity measure to raise funds.

Locals believe that the rise in crime rate is due primarily to the immigrant population. Racial tensions are growing in Greece as Greek nationals look for people to blame for their predicament. Hatred and violence towards the immigrant population of Greece is increasing. As history has shown us many times, people often look for someone to blame that they can actually do something about. They cannot attack the banksters or IMF so they look to the immigrants as a place to lay blame and vent their frustrations.

The future of Greece will be further impacted in future as a growing number of students are forced to leave school to help support their families and astonishingly, 2/3rds of Greece's youth are now unemployed. It is difficult to see a bright future for Greece when the number of educated youth dwindles and any job opportunities quietly disappear. The future generation for Greece is fast becoming "lost".

Late in 2013 the IMF admitted that it had misjudged the effect of austerity measures forced on Greece although their excuse was wrapped in bankster talk. Their report, which examined the impact of IMF-backed economic reform programs in several countries, said the collapse in Greek output reflected “weaker than anticipated program implementation and payoffs from reform, political and social dislocation”. This can be translated to "Greece didn't implement the harsh cuts fast enough and we were hoping that we would get lots more money when we cut wages, slashed the workforce and all but removed pensions and welfare".

Regardless, their statement means they got it wrong - something that the residents of Greece already knew. Let's hope that the fix for their mistake is not more Austerity.

Not everyone sees IMF as helping – The Guardian

CONCLUSION

So there are three microcosms that may help you recognise the global picture unfolding. On local levels, city levels and country levels, the combination of greed, debt, short sighted policies and corruption are leading us to a new future, perhaps bleaker than even George Orwell anticipated. As the government and those with power and money move in to "help" once tough times start impacting them, the solution is always the same - cut the wages, jobs and benefits of ordinary people, raise taxes and costs and sell assets. Perhaps they think that eventually this approach will actually work. Or perhaps their approach is working already by the fact that money is flowing from the middle class and below up to the rich and powerful. If that is the plan then "Mission Accomplished".

The news of events around the world is now reduced to a random set of propaganda stories that we digest on a daily basis. Constant references to drone attacks killing "suspected terrorists" leads us to believe that all those killed by remote control in countries far away, somehow deserved it. We are led to believe that total security cannot exist when privacy exists in any form. We understand that it is better to punish all those that reveal malfeasant government secrets rather than to pay heed to the secrets revealed. We accept the fact that the promises of those seeking to be elected, automatically become null and void once in office. And we understand that Justice is only as defined by lawyers and judges.

Our attention spans have reduced to a few minutes at most for stories on surveillance, privacy, wars, invasion, torture and corruption and these negative hits need to be interspersed with feel-good stories of finding lost puppies or how our sporting idols fared and "entertainment" stories of Britney and Beyoncé.

I am not recommending any particular action or protest. All I can hope for is that people might open their eyes to the bigger picture of what is happening around us. Look up from our everyday existence occasionally and try to see where the actions of our leaders are taking us. Seek alternative sources for your news that paint a less tainted and more complete picture of today's events and consider others opinions every now and then.

I will leave it to the reader to investigate the accuracy of this article, delve further, make their own preparations and take their own actions. Alternatively we can follow the hopes of Neil Finn and Split Enz who sang - "History never repeats, I tell myself before I go to sleep."